The ,,Climate Strategy and Action Plan” Project will provide support to the Ministry of Environmental Protection to prepare a Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan in order to develop the strategy and policy framework required. In addition it will set out a cost-effective pathway for achieving GHG emissions reduction. The Project consists of six Results with a set of underpinning activities. Technical reports for each result will document all input data, assumptions, methodology and approach, stakeholder inputs and detailed results.
Expected results of the Project are:
Current Serbian Climate Change Policy framework assessed
- Analysis of relevant policies for mitigation and adaptation.
- Recommendations for improving policies.
- Identification of relevant institutions responsible for implementation of policies and assessment of inter-institutional cooperation framework.
- Recommendations for possible improvement of inter-institutional cooperation framework.
- Preparation of Report on the current Serbian Climate Change Policy framework.
The Assessment of the Current Serbian Climate Policy Framework will provide an analysis of existing policies and measures which will be used as guidance in formation of the baseline scenario. It will also provide a view of the changes that may be necessary to the existing climate change policy and strategic framework.
The Report on the Current Serbian Climate Change Policy framework will include key constraints of mitigation and adaptation policies that could prevent Serbia from achieving its currently declared targets. It will also contain recommendations for how these identified constraints could be overcome. It will incorporate findings and recommendations from other projects and documents, such as the Second National Communication Report of the Republic of Serbia under UNFCCC and the ongoing Twinning project “Establishment of a mechanism for implementation of the MMR (Monitoring and Mechanism Regulation)”.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios defined for 2020, 2030 and 2050
- Identification of the key sectors and greenhouse gases that will be used for the preparation of baseline scenarios.
- Identification of relevant data sources and data requirements for the proposed models.
- Identification of main drivers for baseline scenarios and their translation into model inputs.
- Identification of the main uncertainties in the drivers for the baseline scenarios and their translation into model inputs.
- Preparation of Report on GHG Emissions Baseline Scenarios.
Definition of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baseline Scenarios will utilise existing replicable datasets. They will be formed using the GEM-E3 (Economy), PRIMES (Energy) and CAPRI (Agriculture and Forestry) Models alongside consultation with relevant stakeholders. The scenarios will be produced from a baseline year of 2015 as this is the latest year for which data is available.
The PRIMES, GEM-E3 and CAPRI Models are used as these models were used to form similar policy at an EU level. The ‘with measures’ basline scenario will contain Policies and Measures in place by the end of 2015. This will be based on a review carried out under Result 1. Another scenario, will project from 2015 and not consider the Policies and Measures ‘without measures’. The ‘with measures’ scenario will form the basis of the mitigation scenarios produced under Result 3.
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios defined for 2020, 2030 and 2050
- Preparation and analysis of GHG mitigation scenarios.
- Preparation of report on GHG mitigation scenarios.
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios will be prepared with an end point of 2050 and interim years of 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040. They will be mindful of the trajectory required to meet global temperature targets out to 2070. These scenarios will explore potential GHG emissions reduction based on different assumptions considered as ‘constraints’. The Scenarios will be produced in consultation with stakeholders.
Scenario 1 will explore the potential pathway for the implementation costs and processes surrounding the implementation of polices/measures in Serbia in accordance with legislation required for accession to the EU.
Scenario 2 will contain a range of new policies and measures applicable to EU membership (e.g. Emission Trading Scheme – ETS). This Scenario will form the basis for Scenario 3 and Scenario 4, and it will be assessed under Result 4.
Scenario 3 will be produced through stakeholders revision of the constraints/drivers used to form Scenario 2. A working session set-up under the Project Steering Committee will decide which constraints/drivers will be open for stakeholders to change. These stakeholders will consider their own knowledge and expertise alongside the results of the sensitivity analysis under Result 4 to consider how these constraints/drivers should be changed or if new ones should be added.
Scenario 4 will also be prepared in consultation with relevant stakeholders. The same working group will decide which constraints/drivers will be open for stakeholders to change. These stakeholders will consider their own knowledge and expertise alongside the results of the sensitivity analysis under Result 4 to consider how these constraints/drivers should be changed or if new ones should be added. The list of constraints/drivers will a much wider than under Scenario 3.
Economic, environmental and social impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios assessed for 2020, 2030 and 2050
- Identification of direct and indirect economic, social and environmental impacts.
- Preparation of report on impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios
Assessment of impacts of GHG Mitigation Scenarios will focus on the socio-economic impacts and benefits associated with the mitigation Scenarios highlighting issues such as impact on jobs, education and structural requirements. This will include a sensitivity analysis of the Scenarios.
In the first stage a quantitative sensitivity analysis will be provided on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2. The results from this, notably Scenario 2, will be used to inform the working session in deciding which constraints/drivers to enable the stakeholders to alter when forming Scenario 3 and Scenario 4. The same sensitivity analysis will be further utilised by the Stakeholders when considering how to alter the drivers/constraints in Scenario 3/Scenario 4.
Climate change adaptation options assessed for 2030 and 2050
- Identification of most important adaptation measures for priority sectors.
- Assessment of compliance of proposed adaptation measures with policies.
- Preparation of report on adaptation options.
Assessment of adaptation options in priority sectors for 2030 and 2050, including water management, agriculture, and forestry. A strategic framework will be established for future projects, policies and measures for adaptation.
Final Draft Climate Change Strategy with Action Plan prepared
- Preparation of report on preferred options for mitigation and adaptation.
- Preparation of the draft Cimate Change Strategy and Action plan
- Organization consultation with stakeholders
- Preparation of the final draft Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan.
Drafting of the Final Draft Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. Тhis result incorporates the outcomes of all activities, including the conclusions on the policy and institutional framework, the impact assessment for the alternative mitigation scenarios, and the assessment of adaptation options.